COP29 – Will “Climate Christmas” in Azerbaijan Deliver Real Change for Africa

By Ashay Abbhi

The festival season is upon us again: shimmering lights, exotic foods, heartfelt greetings, people flying in from all around the world to be with family and friends, gifts and rewards, gala times, great conversations, and promises to do better this year. Like its previous editions, COP29 promises all this and more under the presidency of H.E. Mukhtar Babayev, COP29 President-Designate. The annual “Climate Christmas,” set to take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, aspires, like every COP before it, to be “different.” But will COP29 truly deliver on this promise? Let’s explore its potential impact, especially for Kenya and Africa.

Kenya’s role at COP29 is particularly significant this year, as it assumes the Chair of the African Group of Negotiators. Kenya’s focus will likely center on securing climate finance for Africa, advancing action on loss and damage, and defining carbon market regulations. Kenya estimates that climate disasters account for three to five percent of its GDP losses each year. Recovery will require robust negotiations in Baku. COP29, which seeks not only action but also heightened ambition, could be Kenya’s moment to make a lasting climate impact.

Enhanced Ambition

It’s no surprise that the world is close to overshooting the 1.5°C temperature limit. Avoiding this outcome demands enhanced climate ambitions from all nations. A radical increase in targets, backed by actionable national plans, could help prevent this crisis. A key component of this ambition is the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance, due to be finalized in 2025. This goal outlines the financial resources required by developing countries to meet their climate commitments, taking their unique needs into account. Kenya has been a strong advocate for enhanced ambition, particularly from developed nations, to drive global change.

Enabling Action

Meeting ambitious climate goals requires enabling action—and climate action comes at a cost. According to the Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance, an estimated USD 2.4 trillion will be needed annually by 2030 to meet climate targets. While the “what” of climate finance has been somewhat addressed, the question of “who” will fund it remains unresolved. Leaders at COP29, hailed as the “Finance COP,” must rethink the long-standing commitment of USD 100 billion per year from wealthy countries, a target that has consistently fallen short. To bridge this gap, global leaders must prioritize climate finance and overcome the entrenched north-south divide.

According to the NCQG, Africa alone needs USD 1.3 trillion annually to combat climate change by 2030. A significant portion of this is required for Kenya to address its worsening climate-related disasters. As Kenya leads the financing negotiations in Baku, it must return with firm commitments to fulfill these needs.

Whose Loss and Whose Damage?

For African nations and small island developing states—among the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions—the stakes are high. These countries often have a seat at the table but struggle to influence the conversation. For them, climate risk is tangible, resources are limited, and support is often inadequate. The Loss and Damage fund, still in development, may be insufficient to address the needs of these regions. The private sector must step in to consider these areas as emerging markets, designing climate solutions tailored to their unique challenges. Kenya, grappling with recurring droughts, has implemented innovative policies to boost resilience, yet financing remains a significant hurdle in recovering from such losses.

The “Santa Clause”

What the world truly needs is a climate “miracle” in Baku. Skepticism aside, COP29 must be different from past conferences—and there are reasons to believe it might be. This year may be one of the last chances to take significant action before climate impacts become irreversible.

Kenya’s delegation, led by President Ruto, must prioritize a few key outcomes: clear, realistic ambition from all parties, regardless of economic or geographic status, and concrete financial commitments (preferably backed by immediate funds) from wealthy nations. Although these demands may echo those of previous COPs, additional measures could prove critical for Kenya and Africa. These include strict penalties for developed nations that miss climate and finance targets, ensuring accountability, transparency to track fund allocation, and prioritizing funding where it is most needed. This approach could be aptly called the “Santa Clause.”

By Ashay Abbhi, Principal, Energy and Climate Change, Intellecap